Interactive · Football

World Cup 2026 AI Predictor

An Elo + Poisson model for the 48-team tournament: match odds, group qualification, and a Monte-Carlo simulation of the whole bracket — now updating with live results as the group stage is played.

Live· 13 matches played · updated Jun 15

Team Ahome advantage

Team Bhome advantage

neutral venue

🇪🇸

Spain

Elo 2129.9

1–1

most likely

🇧🇷

Brazil

Elo 1980

Spain 51%

Draw 25%

Brazil 24%

🟢 Spain win · 51%⚪ Draw · 25%🔴 Brazil win · 24%

Likely scorelines · expected goals 1.60 – 1.00

1–112%

1–012%

2–19.5%

2–09.5%

0–17.4%

0–07.4%

Model: Elo rating difference → Poisson goals. The knockout bracket is seeded by group-stage performance (approximates, not FIFA's exact slotting). Ratings use the World Football Elo scale — top teams exact, the rest calibrated to it. A forecasting toy, not betting advice.