Interactive · Football

World Cup 2026 AI Predictor

An Elo + Poisson model for the 48-team tournament: match odds, group qualification, and a Monte-Carlo simulation of the whole bracket — now updating with live results as the group stage is played.

Live· 72 matches played · updated Jun 28

Team Ahome advantage

Team Bhome advantage

neutral venue

🇪🇸

Spain

Elo 2147.8

1–1

most likely

🇧🇷

Brazil

Elo 2008.7

Spain 50%

Draw 25%

Brazil 25%

🟢 Spain win · 50%⚪ Draw · 25%🔴 Brazil win · 25%

Likely scorelines · expected goals 1.58 – 1.02

1–112%

1–012%

2–19.5%

2–09.2%

0–17.6%

0–07.4%

Model: Elo rating difference → Poisson goals. The knockout bracket is seeded by group-stage performance (approximates, not FIFA's exact slotting). Ratings use the World Football Elo scale — top teams exact, the rest calibrated to it. A forecasting toy, not betting advice.